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Looking ahead to this week’s 16 district championships tournaments for the 5A boys, we analyzed where our ranked wrestlers reside in the regional and district alignments. In a perfectly distributed world, we would have 5 of the top twenty in each region. As some of our readers pointed out yesterday, it just doesn’t work that way – it is very true that, in many cases, the sixth place finisher in one region is a justifiably ranked above a 3rd or 4th place state qualifier from a different region. Keeping that in mind, it is not our intention to necessarily normalize the rankings, letting in only 5 per region into the top 20 numbers, but the exercise does shed light on a couple of items: 1) which kids will have to overcome the greatest competition to get that 4th spot (or even alternate spot) in regionals to qualify for state and 2) which kids have stayed off of our radar and out of the rankings all season that should, indeed, be considered in the top 20.
In the case of the 5A boys, as well as both girls’ division, the latter is more relevant, since we don’t have all top 20 slots filled in some weight classes. Even with the open slots, let’s take a look at how things are distributed. Once again, by the numbers:
Number of weight classes: 14
Total qualifiers and alternates: 14 x 20 = 280
Qualifiers per Region 70 / 4 = 70
Qualifiers per District 70 / 4 = 17.5
So, your “average” region has 70 ranked wrestlers, and your “average” district has 17.5 ranked wrestlers. Let’s see how the current rankings shake out
Region 1 68
Region 2 80
Region 3 40
Region 4 71
So, while most Texas wrestling fans would agree that the Frisco/Ft Worth districts in region 2 have more than their fair share of tough wrestlers – region 3 is really light this year – especially considering that it includes many Dallas area schools in district 9. Here is a district by district analysis:
District 1 – With so many 5A schools in El Paso, they are spread across two districts. District 1 has 5 ranked wrestlers at four schools, led by Burges with two.
District 2 – The bulk of the El Paso talent is pretty evenly spread across seven schools here, with a total of 19 ranked boys. Hanks and Parkland have 4 each.
District 3 – The Amarillo district has 20 ranked boys, led by Caprock’s 6 ranked wrestlers. A total of 6 teams are bringing in ranked boys.
District 4 – The Lubbock district is looking tough, with 24 ranked boys from 6 schools. Vernon leads all with 7 ranked wrestlers.
District 5 – Another tough district meet will feature 26 ranked boys, on 8 different teams. Both Azle and Chisholm Trail come in with 6.
District 6 – The 15 ranked boys are pretty evenly distributed across 8 teams, led by Grapevine with 5.
District 7 – OK, time for an editorial comment – the two largest school districts in the state, Houston ISD and Dallas ISD, have the least developed wrestling programs in terms of overall numbers. It would be nice to see that change somehow. In the Dallas district, Hutchins, Madison and Kimball each bring in one ranked wrestler, for a total of 3 ranked wrestlers.
District 8 – Hey, it’s Frisco, what did you expect? An eye popping 36 ranked boys in this district are spread across 9 different schools. Yes that is almost as many as all of region 3. Wakeland and Prosper have 7 each. There are ranked wrestlers in every single weight class, with FIVE at 113lb. We might see a top-20 wrestler that doesn’t even make it to regionals.
District 9 – The 22 ranked wrestlers here account for more than half of the region 3 total. RL Turner, with 5, is tops among the 8 teams with ranked boys.
District 10 – The Bryan/College Station district has 9 ranked boys from 4 schools. Bryan leads all with 4.
District 11 – There are only 3 ranked boys here, one each at Humble, New Waverly, and Willis.
District 12 – The southwest cities account for all 6 ranked wrestlers. Four schools have ranked boys, led by Richmond Foster’s 3.
District 13 – Things get tough again here, with 17 ranked wrestlers, distributed across six teams, Dripping Springs brings in 7 to lead the pack.
District 14 – Things look a bit quiet in Austin, with only 3 ranked boys – 2 from Johnson and 1 from McCallum.
District 15 – Things are really competitive in Corpus, where 11 teams have ranked wrestlers (more than any other district in the state) with a grand total of 28 ranked boys. Veterans Memorial comes in with a statewide best of 10 ranked boys.
District 16 – The Rio Grande Valley has 23 ranked wrestlers from 7 schools. Rio Grande Valley HS leads all with seven.
Looking at each weight class – there are big anomalies across the board:
106lb AND 113lb – with only 1 wrestler ranked in region 3 (at 106lb), there will be several ranked boys that miss out on state in these two classes – and maybe we will find out whose avoided our radar all year down in region 3.
138lb – 7 ranked boys in region 2
145lb – 7 ranked boys in region 4
152lb – 7 ranked boys in region 2
195, 220 and 285lb – each of these weights has 7 ranked boys in region 2, 220lb also has 7 in region 4 as well.
Bottom line – the district 8 tournament will be tough – hardly any easy roads to regionals. The region 2 and 4 championships will be even tougher. Every one of these wrestlers needs to bring their “A” game if they want to make it to the Berry Center.
Good Luck to all!
Next up: 5A girls